The Impact of Climate Variability On Maize Production in Rwanda, A Case of Nyagatare District from 2015-2023
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.53819/81018102t2502Abstract
Climate variability significantly affects agricultural productivity, influencing food security and economic stability. This study investigates the impact of climate variability on maize production in Nyagatare District, using maize yield records from 11 cooperatives in Nyagatare District from 2015-2023 and climate data (rainfall and temperature) from five weather stations with in Nyagatare District between 1983- 2023. The Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen's slope estimator were applied to assess the historical trend of climate variability of rainfall and temperature from 1983-2023. The results got from Mann-Kendall indicates positive increase in climate patterns over time. The level of maize production was evaluated using standard deviation, revealing fluctuations between 2015 and 2019, followed by a steady increase from 2020 to 2023. To assess the impact of climate variability on maize production, ANOVA was used, revealed that temperature had a statistically significant effect on maize production (F = 45.10, P <5.2*10-24), indicating that variations in temperature levels strongly influenced yield outcomes. In contrast, rainfall did not significantly affect maize production during the same period (F = 1.00042, P = 0.4879), suggesting that the amount or distribution of rainfall was not a major limiting factor in the study area.
Keywords: Climate Variability, Maize Production, Nyagatare District, Rainfall patterns, Temperature Trends, Yield Variability, Agriculture
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